Теоретичні та прикладні питання економіки. Збірник наукових праць.
Випуск 1 (52)
JEL C22, G31, G96
ORCID ID 0009-0000-7554-6372
DOI https://doi.org/10.17721/tppe.2026.52.26
Pankov S.,
PhD student in economics,
Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv
ECONOMETRIC ASSESSMENT OF THE EFFICIENCY OF INVESTMENTS IN TELECOMMUNICATIONS INFRASTRUCTURE TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE LAG EFFECT
The article is devoted to the econometric assessment of the efficiency of investments in telecommunications infrastructure in the context of digital economy development. The relevance of the study is driven by the growing importance of telecommunications as a fundamental component of digital transformation, ensuring the functioning of digital platforms, e-commerce systems, financial technologies, and e-governance services. The increasing capital intensity and technological complexity of the telecommunications sector require the application of advanced analytical approaches to evaluate investment performance.
The main objective of the research is to assess the impact of investments in telecommunications infrastructure on the economic performance of operators, taking into account the presence of time lags and indirect effects through changes in service penetration. The research hypothesis assumes that the impact of investments is nonlinear and mediated, and that its effects are realized over time through the expansion of access to telecommunications services.
The methodological framework is based on econometric analysis, including correlation and regression methods with lagged variables. A multifactor regression model is developed in which key performance indicators, such as revenue and average revenue per user (ARPU), are modeled as functions of lagged investments, service penetration, and operational costs. The inclusion of lagged variables allows capturing the delayed nature of infrastructure investments, reflecting the time required for network deployment, technological diffusion, and user adaptation.
The empirical analysis is conducted using aggregated data from leading telecommunications operators in Ukraine, as well as official statistical and analytical sources. The results demonstrate a strong positive relationship between investments and revenue, while the impact on ARPU is moderate and influenced by external factors such as income levels and market competition. It is found that investments primarily affect performance indirectly through increasing service penetration.
The study confirms the presence of a significant lag effect and highlights the importance of considering both direct and indirect channels of influence when evaluating investment efficiency. The findings contribute to the development of econometric approaches in digital economy research and can be applied in strategic decision-making by telecommunications companies and policymakers.
Keywords: telecommunications, investments, efficiency, service penetration, ARPU, econometric analysis, lag effect, digital economy.
Full Text: PDF
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17721/tppe.2026.52.26